. Michiganders are voting on abortion rights. Given the uncertainty of the overall results of the 2022 Senate elections, I decided to conduct a seat-by-seat analysis of all 174 Senate races since 2012 to see what factors have influenced the results of these contests. Races to watch include those in the 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts, as well as the contest for governor. Redistricting will change everything. Here is a map of the states where one of its seats is due for election. Alicia Parlapiano The Republican nominee, Richard Mourdock, a staunch conservative, defeated the more moderate incumbent, Richard Lugar, in the GOP primary. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth was first elected in 2016, defeating Republican incumbent Mark Kirk. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. Ruth Igielnik For that to be the case, Rosenberg must be right about his core idea: Despite pundits tendency to overestimate MAGA, its rise has given Democrats a major opening to expand their coalition. Republicans won just over half (17 of 33) of the open seat contests during these years. Cook Political Updates 2022 Senate Forecast Districts where the margin of victory was under 10%: Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. Senate 2022 State Projections Race to the WH Rosenberg was vindicated when Democrats vastly overperformed expectations last year. 2 Republicans' late primary complicates their quest to oust Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the nation's smallest swing state. His Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, is backed by Donald Trump. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. . Here are the states: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah. That being said, with a 56 member Democratic senate, four Republicans Ben Sasse, Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins are likely to not abuse the filibuster, letting multiple legislation pass through with certain compromise. Polls are now closed in Hawaii. Alicia Parlapiano Karen Tumulty: Biden defines the central question of the 2024 election. Montana voters rejected a proposal that would have required medical interventions to save those that the state defines as born alive infants. Along with the powerful influence of presidential partisanship, incumbency continues to have a substantial impact on Senate elections, with the average incumbent adding about 8 points of margin to her partys expected vote. These contests should be regarded as Toss-ups. , Kathy Hochul, New Yorks first female governor, beat Rep. Lee Zeldin in the states closest race in decades. First, as one would expect, the larger the predicted margin of victory, the likelier the prediction is to be correct. The Associated Press also provides estimates for the share of votes reported, which are shown for races for which The Times does not publish its own estimates. Were forecasting the race to control the Senate and House, as well as each partys chance of winning the 36 governors seats up for election. Current House. Click here! The polls just closed in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. The tables below show the closest races, and the number of races leaning toward either party, in our estimates. Republicans have won in four of five New York tossup seats, and the Republican candidate is ahead in the fifth. Beyond the wins and losses, another prominent aspect of recent Senate elections is the overall lack of competition. Do you think that some of these big climate and infrastructure investments which are going to spur green manufacturing jobs in some very red places can shift the paradigm on how working-class White people view climate change and government spending? These ballots, which in 2020 favored Trump, were not enough to tilt the election in favor of the Republican candidate Kari Lake. , Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia, defeated his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams, for a second time. The results of this seat-by-seat analysis were consistent with the national forecast from the generic ballot model. Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina, a Trump-backed conservative, beat Cheri Beasley, a Democrat, to capture retiring Senator Richard Burr's seat. 2022 United States Senate elections Second, he has to bring the Republican coalition together, which would require political skill that I dont know that he possesses. Based on the results of my analysis of Senate contests between 2012 and 2020 in Table 2, I calculated the models expected results of all 35 Senate contests taking place this year. Colorados Third District is leaning toward Lauren Boebert, an ardent supporter of Donald Trump, according to our estimates. We use early returns and polling data to estimate in real time the outcome of the elections for Senate and House control. And Kansas Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is in a tight re-election race, as is Gov. Things have changed in this race since when I first rated it. , Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, defeated Doug Mastriano, a Trump-backed election denier, in the race for Pennsylvanias governor. First, DeSantis has to win the primary, which doesnt look very likely at this point. Vermont- this state has consistently voted for Democrat senators and the incumbent Patrick Leahy has been serving since 1974. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials. Heres how it works The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took place on November 8, 2022, as part of the biennial 2022 United States elections. Nov. 17, 2022, The gap between the candidates for Arizona governor narrowed considerably after Nov. 8 as late absentee ballots were tallied, including ones dropped off on Election Day. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Alicia Parlapiano Lazaro Gamio Gov The analyst who saw through 2022s red mirage has a We rated every race in play in 2022. Here's a list of the ups anddowns: A more competitive national environment and some weaker GOP nominees mean neither party enters the final two months before the election with a significant advantage in the battle for Senate control. Theres no way that theyre going to be able to reposition him over the next year and a half. We analyzed every House, Senate and gubernatorial seat to determine who we think will win the 2022 midterm elections. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. that guide every prediction he makes. Even though Democratic presidential candidates won the national popular vote in all 3 presidential elections between 2012 and 2020, Republican presidential candidates carried 93 of the 174 states with Senate contests during these years a success rate of just over 53%. Where Senate Candidates Outperformed Biden and Trump. Senate Midterm Election Results 2022 | CNN Politics Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a Democrat, won a tough re-election race against her Republican rival, Tudor Dixon. Last updated on November 17th 2022 at 6:30 am. Lazaro Gamio Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early in Wisconsin, but it looks close. Explore the full list of features on our site map. In Ariz., Mont., Neb. Web2022. Two findings stand out in this table. Republican candidates won 83 out of 170 contested Senate races between 2012 and 2020, but the prediction model indicates that they should have won 91. final pre-election results projection, click here. 2022 Senate He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. I cant tell you how fired up the Democratic grass roots is right now. From an electoral point of view, the story here is consistent: Democrats have stoked the culture wars by getting more extreme on social issues and Republicans have used this to successfully cleave away a segment of both the non-college white vote and, more recently, the non-college nonwhite vote, Moving to the left may help galvanize the progressive base which is good! The reason we need to do what youre describing which is to go into places that werent available to us before is that we need this victory to be as big as possible. Weve made future-oriented investments in infrastructure and tackling climate change. This is not a time to be defensive. For the final pre-election results projection, click here. George Santos, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks Third Congressional District. Weve demonstrated that in the current political environment, we can grow the coalition. Some of our partners may process your data as a part of their legitimate business interest without asking for consent. , Emilia Sykes, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios 13th Congressional District. Lazaro Gamio Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. Abortion rights were put to the test in the midterm elections. Jason Kao The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by Janet Mills of Maine. The race for North Carolinas open Senate seat is leaning toward Representative Ted Budd, a Republican, according to our estimates. Lazaro Gamio GOP Rep. Mark Amodei looks safe for reelection after surviving his primary. All rights reserved. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Nov. 10, 2022, More than 200,000 Georgia voters cast ballots for Brian Kemp, Republican candidate for governor, but did not vote for Herschel Walker in the Senate race. Indeed, we would narrowly favor Republicans to win in Nevada and Wisconsin, though both races remain extremely tight. The Democrats need to win roughly twice as many of the most competitive districts as Republicans to keep control of the House. Nate Cohn *. Nov. 10, 2022, As of noon Eastern time, Democrats have won 190 House seats, Republicans have won 208, and 37 are still undecided. In Arizona, Democrat and former astronaut Mark Kelly defeated the appointed Republican incumbent, Martha McSally, while in Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff, a documentary filmmaker and former congressional aide, defeated Republican incumbent David Perdue, and Democrat Raphael Warnock, pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, defeated appointed Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler. Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorados 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. RCP Average 0 Days to Election Day. Virginias Seventh District is one of three races in the state that could offer an early sign of whether the Democrats can retain control of the House. All indications are that both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are planning to run for President, and we are tracking the latest polling nationally and in every state. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman; production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman. Nov. 9, 2022, Democratic House candidates outperformed Biden in several Michigan districts, bucking a rightward trend and maintaining seven of their seats. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. Vance won Ohio handily even as almost every part of the state voted more for Democrats than they did in 2020. These same counties favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by a margin of 8 percentage points a whopping 19-point swing. Looking for Bidens Approval Rating Map? . Another 15%, about 5 per election cycle, were decided by a margin of less than 5 points. See the rest of our predictions. The outcomes of the races in these three states will decide the balance of power in the Senate. RCP House Map Race Changes. Democrats are hoping to pick up seats in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio, while Republicans have pinned their hopes on races in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. You deserve to hear our thinking. , Vicente Gonzalez, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Texas 34th Congressional District. If DeSantis can energize the MAGA base while partially reversing the educational realignment that Trump ushered in, thats a major problem, no? People are ready to fight. The final forecast lists six Toss Up races, one more than two years ago. Senate Individual showings of Senate winners varied widely. v. t. e. The 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Illinois . Wiley Nickel, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent North Carolinas 13th Congressional District. Democratic incumbents (87%) and Republican incumbents (88%) were equally successful. Lazaro Gamio You deserve to hear our thinking. But in many of the most consequential statewide races, Democrats enter Election Day still in the hunt thanks to their candidates strong fundraising and polls that show, for now, they are running ahead of President Joe Bidens poor approval ratings. This discrepancy reflects the small state bias of the Senate, which results in an overrepresentation of Republican-leaning states. Laura Kelly is Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent on the ballot this year. Nov. 8, 2022, These charts show how the reported vote margin (the dashed line) compares with our estimated final margin (the solid line, surrounded by bands of uncertainty) over time. *The vice president, Kamala Harris, breaks 50-50 ties for the Democrats. All rights reserved. To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. Christine Zhang John Fetterman has been locked in a bitter contest against Mehmet Oz, the Republican celebrity doctor. The polls are now closed in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and in parts of Florida and New Hampshire. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. Depending on how many people vote Democrat in New Orleans, there is an outside chance for this seat to flip to the Democrats. Given the narrow size of recent Senate majorities, that underperformance is quite significant. . The data in Table 1 indicate that a couple of the key factors influencing the outcomes of Senate contests during these years were incumbency and state presidential partisanship. Over the past decade, however, we have seen that Republicans have blown several opportunities to pick up Democratic seats by nominating candidates who were either ideologically extreme or weighed down by personal controversies. The Times estimates the share of votes reported and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. Mail voting in 2020 contributed to longer wait times for results. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. Three other races, in North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, are also expected to be closely contested. , Gov. More than 200 Republicans who questioned or denied the 2020 election results have won in the midterms so far. Meanwhile, Republicans are in the hunt in Colorado and Washington State though both are rated Lean Democratic. It would take a larger GOP wave than is currently apparent for Democratic Sens. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. The party that wins two of the Adjusted Poll Average. The 2022 Senate Forecast uses a sophisticated model that includes polling, historic trends, and fundraising to create its projections. Nov. 8, 2022, Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. Click here!, Click here for the National 2022 Senate Forecast, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. You write that Bidens argument for reelection is simple: Hes done a good job, and the country is better off. Mandela Barnes, and there is a close contest for governor. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. In Indiana, a House race in the 1st district leans Democratic, but, if the seat were to flip, it could be an early sign of a red wave. Web2022 Senate - State Projections. An even greater discrepancy between predicted and actual results occurred in the 2017 Alabama special election in which ultra-conservative former state Supreme Court justice Roy Moore won a runoff primary against appointed incumbent Luther Strange to win the Republican nomination. Florida: Likely to Lean Republican. In Arizona, 604 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26. Representative Tom Malinowski, a second-term incumbent, conceded his race for re-election to his Republican opponent, Tom Kean Jr. 2022 Nov. 9, 2022, The feared Democratic collapse along the Rio Grande didnt materialize. Maggie Astor Based on New York Times/Siena College polls in four states. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Our newest ratings and updates, Beto ORourke performed better than expected in these majority-Hispanic counties. Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring) Trumps strength in Ohio Third, he would somehow have to obscure the rightward lurch he just went through in the current legislative session the six-week abortion ban, the permitless carry, the assaults on public education and diversity. Maggie Astor Senate Lt. Gov. In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. Nov. 9, 2022, Majority-Hispanic counties in Florida voted to reelect Gov. Its my view that the energy that generated this anti-woke boomlet on the right is dissipating. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. The full forecaster analysis can be found here (subscription required). In the 2020 election cycle, 66% of the voters voted for Biden while 68.5% of the voters voted for Republican Governor Phil Scott. Lauren Leatherby Republicans have flipped four House seats in New York, two districts on Long Island and two in the Hudson Valley. Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens survived a member-versus-member primary in August likely the biggest obstacle to her reelection. 2022 Senate Election Predictions - Medium at POLITICO, In Wisconsin, GOP Sen. Ron Johnson jumped out to a lead earlier this fall, but the final polls suggest that Democrat Mandela Barnes remains in contention. Democrats extremely narrow majorities in Congress are highly vulnerable, and the traditional midterm penalty suffered by the party in power has Republicans likely to gain upward of 15 House seats, and they have a good shot of taking full control of Congress. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. Four counties all of which supported Trump in 2020 voted for Shapiro but chose Dr. Oz, the Republican, for the Senate. We got to 57 percent in Pennsylvania. Arizonas Senate race is a currently tossup, according to our estimates. Tony Evers won a second term as governor of Wisconsin, giving Democrats a foothold in a critical presidential battleground. The media has given Oz and Walker plenty of attention as the GOPs worst Senate candidates, but Johnson might be right Democrats also won the Governors office, State Senate, and appear poised to take the State Assembly, and voters affirmed abortion rights in the state. Yet you also acknowledge that Democrats are underwater on the economy. J.D. Contests were only counted once per cycle, so the 2013 Massachusetts and New Jersey special elections were omitted because those same seats were also contested in the 2014 November general election. . In the case of the Senate, however, the results indicated that the outcome was likelier to be close to a standoff.
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