Steph Currys Flowers, Him Vs. That Guy, and Round 2 Elation With J. Kyle Mann. For instance, suppose a quarterback throws an accurate pass of 40-plus yards. Outside of throws of 40-plus yards, Nick Foles' accuracy was lacking. Michael Thomas, when healthy, is so good at running slant routes that the joke is he only runs slant routes. Are Drew Brees's Days As a Deep-Ball Artist Behind Him? This is not to say that Breess career is over, or that the Saints are doomed in 2020. Overview; News; Stats; Bio; . 1. Recent stars like Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson don't grade out nearly as well as people think due to the fact that both had poor accuracy on deep passes, to all depths. The Broncos on Monday picked up wide receiver Jerry Jeudy's fifth-year rookie option. drewbrees, PFR HOF Monitor: 140.58 (7th among QB, average HOF QB is 104.14). With no Roethlisberger for almost all of last season, we have pulled up his 2018 statistics to include him on the list. Both teams have strong playoff odds each sits in excess of 94 percent but the contest could have huge implications on not just the AFC North derby but also the all-important race for the AFCs top overall seed. Do they have predictive value? (Its a funny joke to everybody not routinely giving up first downs to Michael Thomas on slant routes.) The biggest surprise from charting the 2017 season was the quality of Jacoby Brissetts play. Failed to recognize receivers running wide open down the seam.". It doesn't smell right, it doesn't match his profile, it's not reflected in his performance, and it's not corroborated by the fans. Fandom; Futhead; Darnold is now entering his third season of football with as many questions surrounding his prospects as there were when he was drafted. NFL Passing (13). Birth date: January 15, 1979. His scouting report says he struggles with the deep ball because he had a low completion percentage - its possible his receivers just stunk. Efficiency Score uses a points system that rewards accurate passes and docks points away for inaccurate completions (plays where a pass is inaccurate but caught thanks to a receiver who bails out the quarterback), interceptions where the quarterback is at fault, and dropped interceptions where the quarterback is at fault. Do you have a sports website? Drew Brees Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com Drew Brees Drew Christopher Brees Position: QB Throws: Right 6-0 , 209lb (183cm, 94kg) Born: January 15 in Austin, TX (Age: 44-060d) More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 13x Pro Bowl 1x All-Pro 1x SB Champ SB XLIV MVP 2004 AP Comeback Player 2x AP Off. Case Keenum was the least efficient downfield passer, surprising since he led the league in overall passing DVOA. We need to go back some way to get a representative snapshot of Tyrod Taylors play, and if we include all plays back to 2016, he doesnt fare particularly well. Penalty Disciplined. You'd think those would more closely line up if every play was looked at. The league has known that for as far back as anybody can remember, and in todays game, the most reliable way of producing them is by throwing the ball deep. Are these numbers consistent from year to year? After Cooks, the Saints traded for Ted Ginn, who ran a 4.38 40-yard dash. While Winston went deep on 15.8% of his dropbacks (fourth), Fitzpatrick was all the way down in 16th at 12.9%. Only Garoppolo threw deep less often, even adjusting for the games he missed injured, and by late in the year his arm looked alarmingly weak. The Deep Ball Project | Football Outsiders Big shock coming from a Bill Belichick-coached offense, I know. He is the greatest statistical quarterback in NFL history. His accuracy was 15th with good pass protection, but was second-to-last under pressure. Burrow had just two turnover-worthy plays on 83 deep shots, and though his arm is far from the strongest in his draft class (let alone in the entire NFL), he has the other skills to still be an effective deep passer. He played only two seasons with the Saints, but caught four 50-yard touchdowns from Brees. Obviously, he would need to improve from here if he is to succeed in Denver. Because they pose minimal danger over the top to keep defenses honest, you might think that Brees and the Saints would be struggling. Last year, he was 0-for-5 with an interception. Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? That results in the quarterback's efficiency score. Looking at Savage vs Watson and Foles vs Wentz, it would appear the price of mobility is increasing rates of throwing on the move, but with the bump of less pressure and more open windows. That inaccurate completions number is a perfect illustration of Keenum's luck last year and why the Vikings were right to let him go. Is the reviewer a Colts fan, for instance? Drew Brees played 287 games over his career. Brees is statistically one of the worst deep-ball throwers in the league and the Buccaneers need to take advantage According ESPN Stat & Info , Brees is throwing short passes at a historically . Manning: 266 Games, 65.3% completion, 71,940 yards, 539 TDs, 251 Ints, QB . You don't expect a top receiver to let down his quarterback that many times. He has just one completion. (The All-Pro has been injured since Week 1.). This is the fourth edition of the Deep Ball Project, which of course means I have been doing this since 2014. Carson Palmer's swan-song year was a shadow of his phenomenal 2015 season, but he faced the highest rate of pressure on downfield throws. Base on Balls (Walk) sb Stolen Bases . All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. Now that Ginn is gone, the Saints have Emmanuel Sanders, who ran a 4.39 40-yard dash and got open over the top in last years Super Bowl as a member of the 49ers. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Support Football Outsiders' independent media. The success Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers had should not be a surprise, as they have consistently ranked as two of the absolute best downfield passers in the Deep Ball Project's history. Every passing list Lamar Jackson finds himself in the middle of this offseason is a massive win for both him and the Ravens, given where he started from as a passer. What's the point of that? 18.8 yards/attemp. Though he didn't have the lowest accuracy percentage, the inaccurate completions, interceptions, and dropped picks severely lowered Keenum's efficiency score. Completion percentage is a highly valued stat in football, and while that's included in the Deep Ball Project, a greater emphasis is played on accuracy percentage. 2 is Dak Prescott. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. Its not that Derek Carr is bad at passing deep, its just that it seems to be near impossible to convince him to try it. The only other comprehensive accuracy charting I know of is Cian Faheys Pre-Snap Reads books (if you know of more, I love this stuff so let me know). While Andy Dalton was a pedestrian deep passer, the Bengals will be hoping that Joe Burrow is entirely different. Does Brees still have this string to his bow? Even within the subset of deep passes, it would appear that Brissett is throwing a high number of deep balls that are even less likely to be completed than average. Drew Brees had 80,358 passing yards over his career. (This is where the "elite" jokes come in.). The correlation between Kinsleys ACC% on throws 16+ yards downfield and Faheys ACC% on throws 21+ yards downfield is 0.76, so I think its reasonable to conclude they are onto something here even if their results dont line up exactly. Making that throw under both scenarios adds two points to make the throw worth eight total points. I applaud the time you put into this, and I am not suggesting my few minutes of research trump your stats, but claiming Brissett is the most accurate deep passer in the NFL is a tough row to hoe. My jobs not to have the most air yards. Brees was mocking anybody who would hold some silly advanced stat in his face as a sign hes not a good quarterback. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. All rights reserved. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. If his "inaccurate completions" were only completed at a league average rate, how much would his DYAR actually change? How much can Joel Embiid give the Sixers against the Celtics? Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS. Now Hell Face LeBron and the Lakers. These include: For every edition of the Deep Ball Project, I have added in new stats to allow for more context. Are Drew Breess Days As a Deep-Ball Artist Behind Him? Despite having the lowest average depth of target in the NFL last year, Brees thrived. In 2017, he was 7-for-15 on such throws. I know this from experience because of my research on downfield throws. They found that, from 2014 to 2017, he averaged about six completions on these throws every year. Drew Brees vs. Aaron Rodgers: Breaking Down Each Part of These He covers the Tennessee Titans for Music City Miracles on SB Nation, and also writes for the Minnesota Vikings website Purple PTSD. Brees has proven throughout his career, and in the 2011 regular season, that he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when it comes . Ryan lacked the stellar stats of his MVP year in 2016, but that's because the departure of Kyle Shanahan produced far fewer open windows and he had 18 accurate incompletions (accurate passes that the receiver failed to catch). Yes, that is Jacoby Brissett on the top. Falcons. Then there's the fact that the very *foundation* of this analysis is made of potentially dubious subjective judgement calls . Grading Every Teams Performance in the 2023 NFL Draft. The person most acutely aware of this decline seems to be Brees. Do you have a blog? Drew Brees Stats, News, Bio | ESPN To be fair, these examples happened with QBs with either small sample sizes (where a few more/less accurate passes would really shift the %), or a big difference in attempts. Only Jimmy Garoppolo who benefits hugely from the scheme in San Francisco when it comes to deep shots had a higher adjusted completion rate on deep passes than Deshaun Watson last season. Henderson, who was already in New Orleans when Brees arrived, was the first. Is there any reason to believe it's not? Drew Brees - College Football at Sports-Reference.com Murray had just two turnover-worthy plays on 62 deep attempts a season ago. Now let's get to the accuracy percentages on every distance of deep passes. There is an entire five-minute video of Breess 70-yard touchdown passes, many of which are bombs thrown over the top. Thats especially concerning given that he had some pretty legit receivers to play with. Join our linker program. Get complete game-by-game stats for quarterback Drew Brees on ESPN. also new for 2017-18? Explore Who had the most wins as an underdog last season? This takes a look at each quarterback's rate of scenarios out of the total amount of downfield passes. Every offseason, I independently chart quarterbacks on what I like to call the Deep Ball Project. Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? He also showed impressive touch on passes of 25 to 29 yards and on passes of 35 to 39 yards, ranking in the top five in both ranges. Or write about sports? Criticized harshly for a weak arm, the 41-year-old almost never throws the ball deep anymore, instead tossing short passes to running back Alvin Kamara and various receivers not named Michael Thomas. He managed this despite playing with some of the least efficient receivers of 2017 (even Delanie Walker let him down) as well as being in a Mike Mularkey offense that gave him great protection but very few open windows. If a QB is more selective in picking their spots to go deep, they'll get their deep throw highlights without the accompanying misses on lower percentage deep throws. Jimmy Garoppolo had the highest percentage of clean pockets. Where was Drew Lock born? Stroud, Mike Tanier's Final Three-Round Mock Draft, Things to Do While Waiting for Aaron Rodgers. He has not been a great downfield passer for a while, lacking the precision he has shown in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Deshaun Watson (67.0%), 5. Drew Brees completed 67.7 percent of passes in his career. There are 2-3 gif examples for every QB at his full website, including each QB's best downfield throw in his opinion: https://brickwallblitz.com/2018/03/28/the-2017-18-deep-ball-project/, In reply to Re: The Deep Ball Project by Toner. Consistently excellent deep accuracy was a rare commodity last season but Brissett was one of the best at creating big plays with his arm. The Bruins Choke. There has been a lot of numerical analysis of many parts of football and especially of quarterbacking, but there has generally been very little dedicated to analyzing downfield passes. 3pg. Turnovers Per Game. Please enter a valid email and try again. The Day Kansas City Drafted Patrick Mahomes, Aidan O'Connell, Tanner McKee, and the Day 3 QBs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba Highlights Deep Class of WRs, Most Undervalued Players in a 2023 Fantasy Football Draft, Colts Take Will Levis in Latest Mock Draft. Despite 662 dropbacks, Goff took a shot deep just 56 times (8.9%) and scored only one touchdown on those plays, despite having plenty to work with in terms of receiving talent. For the Cincinnati Bengals, we ranked Andy Dalton rather than embarking on the pointless exercise of comparing Joe Burrows college stats to NFL equivalents (though if you wanted to see Burrows deep passing numbers, youd find them in PFFs 2020 NFL Draft Guide). It has been no secret that Alex Smith's career, for the most part, has been defined by his safe style of playing quarterback. He actually carries the No. Drew Brees Career Stats Against Atlanta | StatMuse (Was there THAT big of a difference in 15/16 yard "hard to tell" discrepancies? The Kings had no answer for Steph, who dropped 50 in a record-breaking Game 7 outburst to propel Golden State to a tantalizing second-round matchup against the Lakers. I'm not sure docking 3 points for an inaccurate completion makes sense, it seems like it would be too harsh in many cases. Play-action bombs can be most effective on first down, when both offenses and defenses are programmed to think about remaining "on schedule" with 6- to 8-yard gains . Ultimately its just another part of Trubiskys game that has likely cost him the starting job in favor of Nick Foles, whose numbers last season may have been even worse than Trubiskys. Though he faced more pressure downfield, Foles was still able to get friendly reads because of the variety of play-calling that Doug Pederson provided. And yet, New Orleans has started the season with at least four wins in its first six games for a fourth consecutive year, and Brees is seventh in the NFL in Total QBR.1 Brees has been trending in this direction for a while, but he is now pushing the absolute limits of how much a quarterback can accomplish without having the arm to back it up. No, 90 gifs are unquestionably NOT sufficient when they're spread out over 30+ players. The San Francisco quarterback also benefitted from Kyle Shanahans scheme regularly presenting him with wide-open targets downfield, but to his credit, he hit them when called upon. Were previewing the conference semifinals by answering one burning question about every matchup. Justin Herbert (66.9%), Game flow and situation can only account for so much, and the Colts will be desperately hoping that isnt an indicator of his arm just being cooked. Last year, that fell to 8.2 percent, the lowest mark of his career and second-lowest among starting quarterbacks. Elo likes the Ravens at home here, giving them a 60 percent chance at the victory, but the teams are pretty evenly matched, and it should be an excellent defensive battle. Copyright 2000-2023 Sports Reference LLC. Drew Brees NFL News & Stats. It appears to be a strong argument, unlike everything else you said. His adjusted yards for 22 completions is (674 + 4*20 - 1*45) = 709 yards. YDS. Drew Brees, , - Career Stats - NBA - CBSSports.com ", http://presnapreads.com/2018/03/25/quarterback-tiers-and-rankings-based-exclusively-on-the-2017-season/. So you're saying that accurate measurement of QB performance isn't possible then, because the QB can't be credited or criticized for making the smart play? Tom Brady was slightly below average, which isn't really that surprising. In that August story about Breess offseason program, ESPN looked back at the QBs career attempts to targets deeper than 35 yards downfield. Ryan Tannehills arrival last season changed the teams fortunes and transformed the Titans offense. What really helped him was that he took good care of the football and had solid all-around accuracy percentages, which means he wasn't punished outside of the inaccurate completions. Stafford passed for six deep touchdowns but had 16 big-time throws, and he perhaps deserved a little more when it came to putting points on the board from his passes. Drew Brees was on the Chargers for five seasons. The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. The 2017-18 edition includes much more than previous editions, but the most significant stat is Efficiency Score. Or 1257 yards for the first 60 attempts and 8.1 yards per attemp for the remaining 78. By comparison, Mahomes had four fewer of these big-time throws but they ended up in six more scores. The player with arguably the leagues strongest arm is arguably the leagues worst deep passer. The aggressiveness of a QB could also affect this perception quite a bit. Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. (These can be subjective or hard to dissect from miscommunications at first glance.). Is there some other bias we can't possibly see with a couple of potentially cherry picked examples? Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar even named a specific statistic after Smith, measuring how aggressive or conservative quarterbacks were on third down. So here's how each area of the field is handled in that regard: One additional point will be handed out if the accurate pass was delivered under pressure or in a tight window (where the quarterback has much less margin for error). Drew Brees threw for 465 yards in the Saints' 41-38 victory over the Panthers, setting an NFL record with the 15th 400-yard passing game of his career. He took a massive step up on downfield passing in Year Nmero Dos. 11:36 AM, Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints is having one of the most interesting quarterback seasons in recent memory. Plays where the receiver catches the ball but can't control the ball as he hits the ground. I just said you should give credit to the WR for allowing the QB to make an easier read and throw because when that WR gets hurt or leaves in free agency, that ability goes with him. Find out more. The big shock comes from the different situations faced by Texans quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Tom Savage. Cousins overall deep numbers werent spectacular, but when he hit on a shot it tended to be an absolute dime. If you look at the situation rate splits, Brissett threw a relatively low proportion of his deep passes from clean pockets and into open windows, and threw a relatively high proportion of his deep passes under pressure and into tight windows. How many games does Drew Lock play? Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. Birth Country: United States. Throws Ball Away Yes. Drew Brees Almost Never Throws Deep Anymore. Is That - FiveThirtyEight Or on sideline routes the QB might put it up high enough that the receiver catches it or it is OOB. And no QB in the entire sample had a season in which he threw a smaller share of passes 20 or more yards downfield than Breess 3.3 percent rate so far in 2020. ESPN profiled Breess offseason attempts to maintain his arm strength back in August. On 138 attempts. The pass is completed but the throw is inaccurate and forces the receiver to adjust. This is an anecdote, this isn't analysis. Let us assume for a second that Brisset actually had 39 completions and not 22. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Fantasy Football. The Saints likely need it if they are to win that elusive second championship. posted a seven-year-high YPA (6th in NFL) and set a career low in interceptions as a starter, resulting in a career-high 115.7 passer rating. And, just looking through Stampede Blue a Colts fan site, I could find no praise of Brissett as a deep passer and a fair amount of criticism. Jacoby Brissett's accuracy was below average to open windows, but he was easily the best tight-window passer downfield, with an incredible 65.9 percent of his passes to tight windows being accurate. Tyrod Taylor was the only quarterback to be accurate on all of his passes to open windows. No passer could match the 13 touchdowns Mahomes managed on deep targets they were two more than the next closest quarterback. Name: Drew Brees. My job is to execute the offense, Brees said after a surprising Monday night loss to the Raiders. The Giants will be hoping that having his receiving corps healthy and together will help in Year 2. He was the best downfield passer of 2017, as well as the most accurate. As Lukas Matsson closes in on the acquisition of Waystar, Kendall pitches a revolutionary product: fancy retirement homes? We present them here for purely educational purposes. Birth Year: 1979. Drew Brees Career Stats | NFL.com Players Injuries Transactions Health & Safety NFL+ X NFL+ Draft Room Rhett Lewis is joined by Marc Ross, David Shaw and Cynthia Frelund to predict picks. How big of a role did Sean Payton play in Drew . We have tools and resources that can help you use sports data. Steals Per Game. Instead of throwing to one of them, though, he pump-fakes twice and settles on a dump-off pass for a loss of 2 yards. Drew Brees had 571 touchdowns over his career. Drew Brees: Jameis Winston's deep throws are 'what the Saints have been Which Rough NFL Starts Are Salvageable, and Which Are Season-Enders? With this in mind, let's take a look at the final raw numbers for all 35 quarterbacks that were charted. Oops. Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Monday, May 1, 2:31PM. Quickly compare stats, fantasy rankings and points to find out which player is a better option in your fantasy football league. By QBR, Brees is doing better this year than in 2019 another very short-passing season by historical standards despite throwing deep even less (and despite not having Thomas, who set the all-time NFL record for receptions in a season last year). Did certain QBs have the perfect storm of passes? Birth City: Austin. Marcus Mariota was the 10th most efficient passer. Others have mentioned Cian Fahey's QB charting project & when I can compare 2 sources of film-charted stats, it usually fills me with a lot of questions. Jared Goff's friendly percentages aren't a surprise, as Sean McVay was historically sensational as a rookie head coach. Explore Properties. However, Rivers did also suffer from the second-most drops in the league, and accounting for those drops jumps his completion rate up five places on its own. Get the latest news, stats, videos, highlights and more about quarterback Drew Brees on ESPN. (Tannehills average pass travels nearly 2 yards farther than Breess, though, because he seldom targets receivers behind the line of scrimmage.) Brissett ranked 30th in completion percentage among qualified starters, or whatever Pro Football Reference deems "qualified," ahead of only CJ Beathard and DeShone Kizer. Starter is currently injured and may not play. That is, did their attempts contain all the discrepancies between the 2 methodologies (& thus had hugely different rankings). Drew Brees of New Orleans Saints sets NFL mark for 400-yard - ESPN Pittsburgh is undefeated and has dominated with its defense, though Ben Roethlisberger (Elos 13th-ranked QB) may be starting to show his age after below-average games in three of his past four starts. ESPN Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved. But you can't isolate a QB from his surroundings. Drew Brees had a passer rating of 97.1 with 5,366 yards, 37 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 18 games in the playoffs in his career. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. New Orleans Saints (52) Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. His dominance came in short bursts and prolonged excellence: He holds the record for most touchdown passes in a game and in a career. However, his adjusted completion rate was one of the worst figures in all of football, and he had the highest rate of uncatchable, inaccurate passes on those targets. Good for 21 yards per deep ball attempt. Russell Wilson was solid, but not nearly as efficient as in previous seasons. Plays where the receiver catches the ball but has it knocked out of his hands. See our list of forfeits and vacated games for more details. Three-Point Field Goal Percentage. From Joe Burrow to Chase Young, which players from the class of 2020 had their options picked up or declined? The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. Just four years later, the overlooked quarterback led the New . Clutch Yes. Please note that the rankings for clean pockets, pressure, play-action, off-balance, open windows, and tight windows DO NOT REFLECT ACCURACY FOR THIS CHART, just how frequently each quarterback was in each scenario. Tate and J. Kyle Mann discuss Currys incredible 50-point performance against the Kings and introduce a new segment, Matt and Lucas discuss the looming WGA strike, National recruiting analyst Cooper Petagna breaks down the process for determining who the most impactful prospects will be, David and Kaz talk Roman Reigns, Cody Rhodes, CM Punk, and more, Sheil and Ben break down the NFL draft and look ahead to where Kyler Murray will be playing in 2024, The guys also discuss Mondays matchups between the 76ers and Celtics and the Suns and Nuggets, By submitting your email, you agree to our. Lock completed only three of those 11 pass attempts for 96 yards and a score, but he also had one picked off. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. I love detailed breakdowns like this (boy, did I find this way late - guess this is for anyone else who also reads this late). Panama Jacksons True-ish Black Stories and Talking Freaknik, Im Not Gon Let You Play in My Damn Face. Heisman Voting: If anything, the complaint was that he didn't know how to back off on the short throws. That year, Brees led the league in passing yards and touchdowns on deep throws, going 32 for 58 with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions. Drew Brees (13) There were a number of times he threw 100 MPH fastball to back standing 10 yards away. During Sunday night's highlights show, Brees did a breakdown of the Packers-Saints highlights and marveled at the big arm that new Saints QB Jameis Winston showed off during the 38-3 win over the. Ryan, of course, has some elite playmakers to throw the ball to downfield, so we should expect him to feature high on this list because of the favorable looks he will regularly see. Ranking all 32 NFL quarterbacks by deep passing performance: Dak - PFF In that August story about Brees's. The six interceptions dragged his efficiency down, but he was the second-most accurate overall downfield passer.
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