To view standard stats, check out our WR Stats reports. ranked him first among all wide receivers, creates and maintains separation from a defender, the conversation for best receiver in the league. Cooper Kupp demonstrates some WR Drills to improve release, route running & creating separation in this edition of The Nike 11-Online Virtual Training Series. * These targets are based on play by play data and include penalties. CNNs allow us to engage with the spatial nature of our dataset (that is, where each player is on the field in a given play), while LSTM networks allow us to engage with the temporal nature of our dataset (what happens as the play develops over time). The Buffalo Bills added additional weapons in Cole Beasley and John Brown, while also bolstering their defense and making a greater commitment to the run. Over the past three seasons, Jones totals 871 more yards than Hopkins despite running 317 fewer routes. Regular-season passes of between 5 and 15 air yards, minimum of 40 targets. A note: all yards per route run data collected from www.pff.com. What does that mean? We're referring to his productivity on post routes in 2019. Quarterbacks sometimes can make receivers look good, but sometimes it's the other way around. In other words, the regression thinks Johnsons much more likely to maintain his elite TPRR than Stills is to maintain his elite Y/T. NOTE: The two players ranked below who changed teams this offseason -- Bills WR Stefon Diggs and Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins -- are listed with the teams they played for last season, since these rankings are based on their performance in 2019. Thomas caught 87.9 percent of his targets, landing in the top five in that category. We can break down statistics as simple as receiving yards all the way to air yards and even more in-depth measurables such as BMI, which seems to be a hot topic this offseason. Thats what we are doing here. For example, Kenny Stills had the most extreme breakdown of any player in the NFL in 2013. Rookie Wide Receivers: An Analysis of Yards per Route Run and When To account for this effect, Open Score is adjusted for the number of defenders exclusively "assigned" to a receiver. This site rocks the Classic Responsive Skin for Thesis. Thomas did this while fighting through press coverage on 34 percent of his targets, too. For example, we can see that A.J. Of course, Blackmon missed the first four games of the season for violating the NFLs substance abuse policy, and then received an indefinite suspension for again being in violation of that policy after the Jaguars eighth game of the year. But Thomass numbers are still eye-popping, and his peers in the NFL recently ranked him first among all wide receivers (and fifth overall) in the NFL 100. After spending some time looking at our route data, I wanted to highlight a few of my favorite metrics that Ive found. Time Period. Thomas caught 87.9 percent of his targets, landing in the top five in that category. Similar to wide receivers hitting one WR1 season during their careers, there is a significant jump when looking at the total number of WR1/WR2 seasons once you incorporate a minimum of 250 routes run during a wide receivers rookie season. With an annual subscription. If a completion occurs, the receiver is credited with the marginal difference. Explore sample . Forty-eight percent of Thomass 185 targets came on passes 5 yards or less downfield in 2019. Also, there are several other factors considered in establishing the benchmark on each route. He became just the second player in NFL history with an 80% or better catch rate on 100+ targets. What are advanced WR stats? There is a clear correlation between yards per route run in a wide receivers rookie season and future success as a fantasy WR1 or WR2. The other three are kind of interesting. He was off-the-charts good in yards per target (13.9), but saw targets on just 9% of his routes run last year. Dividing total receiving yards recorded by the number of routes run in a given game, season, career, etc. Of course, when comparing Stills numbers to Johnsons, one might note that Johnson was playing with EJ Manuel and Thaddeus Lewis while Stills was playing with Drew Brees, which provides some explanation for the drastic differences between the two receivers in yards per target. Source: NFL Next Gen Stats, ESPN Stats & Information Group. Targets En Route: Factoring in WR Routes Run & Finding Hidden Gems for So while wed like more data, we should probably expect players who show the ability to separate above expectation on routes at these depths to continue to do so.7, Best and worst receiver seasons on intermediate passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. Sample size caveats here. How do we know which is which? Tutu Atwell Stats, News, Bio | ESPN Since the only difference between YPRR and Y/T is the metric targets per route run, its worth asking: is Targets Per Route Run a metric worth looking at? The Giants Jerrel Jernigan not only had a 66% catch rate thats excellent for someone playing with the 2013 version of Eli Manning but he was targeted on a remarkable 28% of his routes in 2013! With NFL+, stay connected throughout the rest of the NFL offseason with special content from Training Camp, Hall of Fame, and more! Totals Per Game. NFL. We think these weights make logical sense, in that a receiver has to get open to have the chance to make a catch. On average, wide receivers that hit 2.00 yards per route run and run at least 250 routes in their rookie campaign are 41% more likely to be a WR1 at any time during their career than a wide . Keegan Abdoo meticulously explains how this could significantly impact Andy Reid's offense -- and fuel Lou Anarumo's defense. RTMs are a set of four metrics we've named Open Score, Catch Score and YAC Score, plus the overall combination of those three. Future iterations of the model will look to delve deeper into the route tree to account for the nuance of route-running at the pro level. For the best in the game, these plays will occasionally pop for huge gains because of their elite speed and run-after-catch ability. Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? 43), 11.5 (No. Metrics that Matter: Fantasy fun with routes run - PFF Titans quarterback Will Levis opens up about emotional draft day. While he didn't make the top three, one of my favorite receivers to watch run a hitch route is Odell Beckham Jr. because of how pronounced yet quick he is in his breakdown at the top of the route. They won't know it's a hitch until it's a hitch -- if the route is run well. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. For the first time, these metrics provided a method to isolate and assess individual player performance in a consistent and objective way. Ginn ran a, Not listed in the bottom five, but relevant based on his reputation: Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf ranked 66th out of 72 receivers by our measure of route versatility. Here, we see that Y/T is not very sticky. The Next Gen Stats Team uses its draft model to identify the five best value picks from Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. In his second season as a pro -- and first in head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense -- the Cardinals' Christian Kirk ranked as the most versatile route runner of the 2019 season. Otherwise, actual targeted receivers would appear to be less likely to complete a catch. D'Onta Foreman thrived with the Panthers in 2022. Of note, this is one of Patrick Mahomes' superpowers. Of those, one was Atlantas Julio Jones, who ran routes on 93% of Atlantas passing plays through the first five games of the year, but missed the final eleven with a fractured foot. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. Do you have a blog? Receivers like Thomas and Beckham run them well, and to great success. Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. It is also important to keep an eye on the changing landscape that is the NFL. Among wide receivers (min. For qualifying wide receivers, the overall score correlates with yards per route 00 which I believe is the best conventional stat to measure receiver production -- at 0.76. Brown trails in yards (306 to 282) but posted a better catch rate above expectation (+22.5% to +7.9%), although he saw 14 fewer targets than Thomas. Cooper Kupp had three of them and was 0.5 points away from a fourth in Week 6. Two tight ends Evan Engram of the New York Giants and Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles top the list of receiver seasons with the highest separation over expected on short throws (5 air yards or less).5 Ertzs targets especially were high value. Other players appear able to consistently create separation on short targets Jarvis Landry is one example but the value of Landrys targets as measured by EPA are much lower than those directed at Thomas. Michael Thomas (3). An interesting note is how close a call it was between Thomas and Ridley for the top spot in the rankings, which should excite Falcons fans about the potential of the former Alabama star. See how WRs perform across the NFL's key metrics. New Orleans Saints (52) With my hypothesis lined up, it was time to dig into the data. We calculate route versatility by averaging the sum of the absolute difference between a player's route percentage and the average NFL receiver's for each of the 10 route types (see the last paragraph of this article for further explanation). While sixteen of the wide receivers saw at least 80% of their teams passing snaps [6]Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. yards per route run by wide receiver ranks 2021. Part of this effect might be due to scheme, but unfortunately scheme and signal-caller overlap too much to parse those effects apart. Yards per route run simply takes the total receiving yards a player accumulated in a given year and divides that by how many routes on passing plays he actually ran. (For example, pass-catchers often receive an official target stat when the pass was clearly a throwaway; RTMs exclude throwaways.). Advanced stats like depth of target, separation window and completion probability provide greater insight, but they still leave out an important factor. Which QB makes the list? Previous Season Next Season. Super Bowl Champion: Los Angeles Rams. With our new route-classification model, we can evaluate which receivers are essentially the most predictable -- or different from the average. And there is a pretty clear answer to that question. Jones was targeted deep more frequently, suggesting that his skillset is better suited to the demands of beating fast humans in a footrace, but hes also not as successful at creating separation from defenders as Thomas is. Copyright 2000-2023 Sports Reference LLC. The top five and bottom five most versatile route runners from the 2019 season among 72 wide receivers with at least 300 routes: This only scratches the surface of the analysis possible with our route recognition. But we can gain some precision by instead using Year N Yards per Target and Year N Targets per Route Run to predict Year N+1 Yards per Route Run: Yr N+1 YPRR = 0.062 + 5.09 * Yr_N_TPRR + 0.0656 * Yr_N_Y/T (R^2 = 0.23). PFF Signature Statistics - a glossary | NFL News, Rankings and For Hopkins, 125 of his 257 came after the catch. Let's see Thomas led all wide receivers in yards gained on hitches. With Jermaine Gresham recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in Week 17, Arizona beat writers are projecting Seals-Jones to enter camp as the starter and with an expanded role in the offense. Cole Beasley may be the weirdest case in the group. Which QB makes the list? One is to measure how consistent they are from year to year. With hitches, there's some uncertainty for cornerbacks: Is their man running a hitch or is it going to be a go (or fade) route? In fantasy football, volume matters much more than efficiency for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. He also posted a catch rate above expectation of +14.7 percent on those routes. [3]In some ways, TPRR is like completion percentage. Yet throughout the offseason, NFL analysts have debated whether Thomass production is best explained by his skill and talent, or if instead hes merely a good receiver who runs a lot of slants and benefits from being in an elite offense. Brown's 2019 season was buoyed by his ability to generate yards after catch despite a mediocre Catch Score, and that Cooper Kupp's 'amazing 2021 season did not rely on any one specific ability but was consistently solid across all three components: Here are the top-five seasons in YAC Score since 2017: The top-five Catch Score seasons include who we might expect and then Marvin Jones Jr. Jones had an amazing season for the Lions in 2017, with 1,101 yards and a league-leading 18.0 yards per catch. This creates chances for catch-and-run opportunities. In some ways, TPRR is like completion percentage. Full list of Mr. Irrelevants in NFL draft history: Is Brock Purdy already the best final pick? Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY . Which view is correct? Unlike our win-rate metrics for line play, there already are reliable statistics that do a good job of telling us who are the best receivers. Signature Stat Spotlight: Wide Receivers | NFL News, Rankings and - PFF 42. We cant say anything about the skill of receivers who fail to earn targets. The assessment takes place a moment before pass release (0.2 seconds prior), because defenders read the shoulders of the quarterback at release and break on the targeted receiver. Looking at the 2019 wide receiver draft class, there are several players that fall into these buckets. But we also see deep ball specialists like D.J. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Route versatility calculation explanation: If Player A runs a go on 25 percent of routes, a hitch on 19 percent and an out on 12 percent, and the NFL averages are 22 percent, 18 percent and 10 percent respectively, the absolute difference from the average across those three routes would be 3 percent, 1 percent and 2 percent. You don't currently have any notifications. In other words, YPRR already incorporates Yards per Target, but it adjusts that statistic for Targets Per Route Run. Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. Seals-Jones is a strong ADP value, currently being drafted in the 15th round in MFL10s. receiving yards along with his target opportunities. jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_3').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_3', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But it is interesting to know, and it is useful in making predictions. Davis was immediately utilized, earning a 71.6-percent snap share with 454 routes run. Who has the edge? Steelers' first draft under Omar Khan was 'aggressive' and achieved high marks, After hoopla of going No. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. The fact that theres no competition for snaps within the backfield and that hes used in all phases of the game helps keep his upside higher than almost any other player in fantasy and means gamescript cant take him out of any game. There is a 33% increase in the number of WR1/WR2 seasons for a wide receiver that hit 2.00 yards per route run when he also ran a minimum of 250 routes in his rookie year. Who has the edge? While thats not a great stat line, it is a pretty good stat line for a player who was still only getting about 20 snaps per game. A receiver can win with inside leverage against an outside corner who is trying to keep him from going deep, leaving the defender in the dust as he runs across the field at a shallow depth. He got 34 receptions, 525 yards, and only one touchdown. jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_5').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_5', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); and Johnson at 1.58 YPRR. In this case, the adjustment is a simple adjusted plus-minus among the QB and his receivers. John Bauer is a featured writer at FantasyPros. Next gen stats favored the deep threat, with a hearty 15.4 average target distance, 17.1 yards per reception . The overall score correlates at 0.52. On the other hand, Davante Adams only achieved .96 yards per route run during his rookie year but has blossomed into one of the top dynasty wide receiver assets. (Again, no one doubts Joness talent or skills, and both he and Thomas are consistently in the conversation for best receiver in the league.). Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill each had two 30+ points performances. . Brown streak across the field at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland in Week 1 last season, I knew he was going to be a problem for defenses in this league. As dynasty fantasy football players, we are constantly trying to stay ahead of the competition by identifying potential breakout players prior to any drastic changes in values. 1, even though, statistically, hes the most efficient wide receiver in the league on a per-route basis. REC. Tied-65th. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. Here's the best-fit formula: N+1 TPRR = 0.062 + 0.671 * TPRR (R^2 = 0.41) The number of targets a player sees per route happens to be a very sticky metric. For running backs, YAC Score accounts for about half of the overall score, with Catch Score the second largest component, followed by Open Score. One thing to know is we exclude assessments of any nontargeted routes on a screen pass, because receivers typically are blocking rather than trying to get open. NFLsavant.com: Advanced NFL Statistics If what RTMs measure are truly intrinsic to each individual receiver, then receivers should carry these qualities from year to year. Interestingly, among the three target depths, SOE on intermediate passes appears to be the most stable year to year. Yards Per Route Run By Wide Receiver Ranks 2021 | StatMuse 2021 NFL Advanced Receiving | Pro-Football-Reference.com So, what can we do with this information, and why should we care? The elements of savvy route running footwork, head and body fakes, disguising the intent of the route, changing direction sharply without losing speed all appear to be more reliable indicators of NFL skill and talent than speed. We have tools and resources that can help you use sports data. I wanted to then break this down not only by the total number of wide receivers that fell into this bucket, but also by the wide receivers who ran at least 250 routes during their rookie campaign. Stat Format. And if it's not completed, he would be debited accordingly. Follow Mike on Twitter @MBandNFL. Jones never hit a 90-percent snap share last year and reached 80 percent of his teams snaps in only seven of 16 games. the drag). John Brown also has a compelling case here, but he was edged out by Thomas in a close battle. Will the Eagles' pass rush befuddle Patrick Mahomes? [1]I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_1').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_1', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But putting the quarterbacks issue aside, the question today is a more global one. In fact, if we instituted a minimum of, say, 15 receptions on out routes, only DeAndre Hopkins (86.4%) and Calvin Ridley (80%) even come close to Thomas' catch rate. Have you ever wondered what sets George Kittle apart from Travis Kelce, or what makes A.J. 1, Panthers' Bryce Young is all 'business now', Top picks Christian Gonzalez, Keion White reflect Patriots' ideal identity, Big takeaways from the NFL draft: A historic QB class, the rebuilt AFC South and new GMs thriving, NFL Nation sizes up all 259 draft selections, XFL semifinals: Defenders roll Sea Dragons, set up title showdown with Renegades.
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